Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
