Is the Entertainment Fading? This Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer goals from open play compared to this point the previous campaign.

A key narrative of the EPL season so far has been the decline of goals scored in open play and the way clubs have been scoring increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.

Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 less in total.

If we look at the broader view, shot attempts teams are taking show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.

And despite the significant rise in dead-ball scores, records show a mere two extra shots created from them excluding penalties, indicating how effective teams have been at discovering methods to score from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Reveal the Tale

301 total goals scored in 110 games so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals each match, if this persists for the entire campaign might be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open-play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the least for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight season to witness scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded the largest drop, registering only four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in goals from open play is very much a London thing, with five out of the city's seven teams netting a minimum of five goals fewer from open-play than the previous year.

Honestly, that's largely down to them netting numerous scores at the start of the previous campaign instead of them having difficulty to convert in open play this season.

Conversely City have experienced the biggest increase, with all but one of their 23 scores so far originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three more scores in open play than the Saints did in matchday 11 on their way to demotion last season.

When it comes to goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the largest rise, with each team replacing the five less goals that they've scored in open play with identical figures from set-pieces.

Man United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season before their coach assumed control, while Sunderland additionally have been more successful at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.

Man City seem unaware of the trend about scoring more from set-pieces, because they've recorded three less than last season, similar to Forest, though this may result from the tactical shift they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – have been this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and increased from set-pieces, while City are the sole team to buck the trend to date by doing the complete reverse.

It will be fascinating to watch if clubs carry on to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they find again their overall inventiveness and commence scoring additional scores in open-play too.

Julie Bryant
Julie Bryant

A senior software engineer with over a decade of experience in full-stack development and a passion for sharing knowledge through technical writing.