From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”