A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
